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- Inflationary pressures have continued to intensify in May in most of the EM economies, with the inflation Citi surprises Index rising to its highest level since September 2008.
- June and July CPI prints in addition to central banks' new forecasts will be key for monetary policy outlook.
- This week, we saw that China PPI rose to 9% in May YoY, up from 6.8% the previous months and 'forcing' Chinese authorities to launch price controls on key consumer goods on corn, wheat and pork.
- The chart below shows that China experienced the most significant change in inflation since the start of the year, with PPI up 8.7 ppt.
- Malaysia, Brazil and Thailand are the other countries facing important inflationary pressures, with CPI inflation up 4.9 ppt, 3.5 ppt and 2.8 ppt, respectively, since the start of the year.
- Not surprisingly, Turkey has been the place where inflation has been the highest in recent months amid rising political uncertainty and 'staff turnover' at the CBRT with May CPI up 16.59%, while Indonesia has been the country where inflationary pressures have been the lowest (May CPI was up 1.7% and up 0.1ppt since January).