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June CPI Review

UK
  • Yesterday’s headline and core CPI both disappointed 2 tenths versus the Bloomberg consensus (although only one tenth versus the median expectations of both headline and core form the analyst surveys we had read ahead of the decision).
  • We look at the main drivers and where this leaves the BOE. The MNI Markets team still leans towards a 50bp rather than a 25bp hike - but the probability of a 50bp hike has certainly reduced.
  • We also round up over a dozen sell side reactions to the data and implications to their policy calls. Deutsche Bank has placed its 50bp August hike call under review.

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