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STIR: Just Over 100bp Of ECB Cuts Still Priced Through '25

STIR
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Light dovish moves in EUR STIRs fade as the recovery from Tuesday/Asia lows in Bunds moderates, with the bulk of the late ‘24/early ’25 hawkish repricing holding.

  • ECB-dated OIS flat on the day, showing ~102.5bp of cuts through year-end, with the next 25bp move almost fully discounted come the end of this month’s decision.
  • Euribor futures -0.5 to +1.5. Only ERH5 has pierced its November low in recent sessions.
  • Comments from ECB’s Villeroy are due this evening, with lower tier Eurozone data (confidence metrics and PPI) scheduled this morning.
  • That will leave much of the focus on the long end and U.S. data (ADP employment and weekly jobless claims).

ECB Meeting

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Light dovish moves in EUR STIRs fade as the recovery from Tuesday/Asia lows in Bunds moderates, with the bulk of the late ‘24/early ’25 hawkish repricing holding.

  • ECB-dated OIS flat on the day, showing ~102.5bp of cuts through year-end, with the next 25bp move almost fully discounted come the end of this month’s decision.
  • Euribor futures -0.5 to +1.5. Only ERH5 has pierced its November low in recent sessions.
  • Comments from ECB’s Villeroy are due this evening, with lower tier Eurozone data (confidence metrics and PPI) scheduled this morning.
  • That will leave much of the focus on the long end and U.S. data (ADP employment and weekly jobless claims).

ECB Meeting

Keep reading...Show less