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STIR: Just Under 50bp Of BoE Cuts Priced Through '25

STIR
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Weakness in wider core global FI markets has some hawkish readthrough for GBP STIRs this morning, although the space remains comfortably off yesterday’s hawkish cycle extremes.

  • BoE-dated OIS shows 49bp of cuts through year-end, with the next 25bp a little over 80% discounted through the March MPC and more than fully discounted through the May meeting.
  • SONIA futures flat to -4.5.
  • Late Thursday comments from BoE Deputy Governor Breeden initially fell in line with the MPC’s central preference for gradual rate cuts, with the subsequent Q&A session providing some slightly more dovish snippets.
  • We still look for rate cuts in February and May, with the dovish offerings in Breeden’s Q&A giving us slightly more conviction.
  • Macro focus falls on U.S. NFP data ahead of the weekend, with little of note on the UK calendar.

BoE Meeting

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Weakness in wider core global FI markets has some hawkish readthrough for GBP STIRs this morning, although the space remains comfortably off yesterday’s hawkish cycle extremes.

  • BoE-dated OIS shows 49bp of cuts through year-end, with the next 25bp a little over 80% discounted through the March MPC and more than fully discounted through the May meeting.
  • SONIA futures flat to -4.5.
  • Late Thursday comments from BoE Deputy Governor Breeden initially fell in line with the MPC’s central preference for gradual rate cuts, with the subsequent Q&A session providing some slightly more dovish snippets.
  • We still look for rate cuts in February and May, with the dovish offerings in Breeden’s Q&A giving us slightly more conviction.
  • Macro focus falls on U.S. NFP data ahead of the weekend, with little of note on the UK calendar.

BoE Meeting

Keep reading...Show less