May 09, 2024 06:49 GMT
Just Under 55bp Of '24 Cuts Priced Ahead Of BoE Meeting
STIR
GBP STIRs are little changed as participants look ahead to the latest BoE decision.
- SONIA futures are flat to -1.0 through the blues.
- BoE-dated OIS shows ~54bp of cuts through year end and prices over 90% odds of the first 25bp cut come the end of the August MPC.
- Our full BoE preview can be found here.
- On Wednesday we suggested that a dovish BoE outcome probably presents the greatest risk to current market pricing, although the move away from recent dovish extremes provides a little more balance to the risk profile heading into the decision.
- Overnight, the S&P-KPMG-REC Report on Jobs showed that the labour market continues to soften, albeit at a slower pace than in March.
BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp) |
May-24 | 5.193 | -0.7 |
Jun-24 | 5.091 | -10.9 |
Aug-24 | 4.960 | -24.0 |
Sep-24 | 4.874 | -32.6 |
Nov-24 | 4.750 | -45.0 |
Dec-24 | 4.658 | -54.3 |
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