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Just Under 55bp Of '24 Cuts Priced Ahead Of BoE Meeting

STIR
HomepageBank Of England (BOE) Market NewsBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets

GBP STIRs are little changed as participants look ahead to the latest BoE decision.

  • SONIA futures are flat to -1.0 through the blues.
  • BoE-dated OIS shows ~54bp of cuts through year end and prices over 90% odds of the first 25bp cut come the end of the August MPC.
  • Our full BoE preview can be found here.
  • On Wednesday we suggested that a dovish BoE outcome probably presents the greatest risk to current market pricing, although the move away from recent dovish extremes provides a little more balance to the risk profile heading into the decision.
  • Overnight, the S&P-KPMG-REC Report on Jobs showed that the labour market continues to soften, albeit at a slower pace than in March.
BoE MeetingSONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp)
May-245.193-0.7
Jun-245.091-10.9
Aug-244.960-24.0
Sep-244.874-32.6
Nov-244.750-45.0
Dec-244.658-54.3
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GBP STIRs are little changed as participants look ahead to the latest BoE decision.

  • SONIA futures are flat to -1.0 through the blues.
  • BoE-dated OIS shows ~54bp of cuts through year end and prices over 90% odds of the first 25bp cut come the end of the August MPC.
  • Our full BoE preview can be found here.
  • On Wednesday we suggested that a dovish BoE outcome probably presents the greatest risk to current market pricing, although the move away from recent dovish extremes provides a little more balance to the risk profile heading into the decision.
  • Overnight, the S&P-KPMG-REC Report on Jobs showed that the labour market continues to soften, albeit at a slower pace than in March.
BoE MeetingSONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp)
May-245.193-0.7
Jun-245.091-10.9
Aug-244.960-24.0
Sep-244.874-32.6
Nov-244.750-45.0
Dec-244.658-54.3