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Just Under 55bp Of '24 Cuts Priced Ahead Of BoE Meeting

STIR

GBP STIRs are little changed as participants look ahead to the latest BoE decision.

  • SONIA futures are flat to -1.0 through the blues.
  • BoE-dated OIS shows ~54bp of cuts through year end and prices over 90% odds of the first 25bp cut come the end of the August MPC.
  • Our full BoE preview can be found here.
  • On Wednesday we suggested that a dovish BoE outcome probably presents the greatest risk to current market pricing, although the move away from recent dovish extremes provides a little more balance to the risk profile heading into the decision.
  • Overnight, the S&P-KPMG-REC Report on Jobs showed that the labour market continues to soften, albeit at a slower pace than in March.
BoE MeetingSONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp)
May-245.193-0.7
Jun-245.091-10.9
Aug-244.960-24.0
Sep-244.874-32.6
Nov-244.750-45.0
Dec-244.658-54.3
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com

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