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Kaczynski Returns To Cabinet, More Macro Data Inbound

POLAND
  • Jaroslaw Kaczynski, leader of Poland's ruling party Law and Justice (known by its local acronym PiS), is set to return to Cabinet, taking on a more direct role in governing the country. Confirming earlier reports, all four Deputy Prime Ministers tendered their resignations, paving way for Kaczynski to become the only Deputy Prime Minister. The reshuffle is intended to bolster the position of Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki, improve coordination between the government and the ruling party, and defuse factional tensions within the Cabinet ahead of a tightly contested parliamentary election this autumn.
  • NBP's Ludwik Koteacki told ISBnews that consumer price inflation may ease to single-digit levels in 3Q2023 but its decline will only last for a few months, more or less until November, as base effects will turn weaker. Speaking on the sidelines of an economic forum, the regular hawkish dissenter said disinflation will be supported by weaker GDP growth and PLN appreciation. He will review his call for further rate hikes after studying the updated macroeconomic projections in July, but "will not suddenly become a dove" and doesn't see space for rate cuts this year, as inflation remains 3-4 times larger than the NBP's target.
  • Wednesday's round of economic data reaffirmed a familiar picture of Polish economy. Industrial output remained weak (but failed to surprise), factory-gate inflation eased notably more than expected, while wage growth disappointed at the margin.
  • Another round of Polish macroeconomic data is inbound, with retail sales, consumer confidence and construction output coming up at 09:00BST/10:00CEST.
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