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Kashkari: Bar For Reversing Policy Very High

FED
  • “For me the bar for [reversing policy] is very high because we have not yet seen much evidence that the underlying inflation," is softening, he said. “A much more likely scenario is we will raise to some level north of 4%, maybe 4.5, and then pause and sit there for an extended period of time"
  • There may be a housing downturn, but not necessarily a hard crash – rtrs
  • Strong labor market signals US not in recession - bbg
  • On FX: USD strength reflects Fed policy and the US economic outlook, with a strong USD making US inflation a little less costly – bbg. Those comments show not much sign of late Aug comments that the inflation impact of strong USD may affect Fed policy.
  • Little impact ahead of FOMC minutes and US CPI tomorrow but continues to build on anti-pivot Fedspeak. Showing 74bp priced for the Nov 2 FOMC, an implied 4.39% for Dec'22, terminal 4.67% for Mar'23 and Dec'23 of 4.35%.
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