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Kashkari Keeps To Data Dependence

FED

Minneapolis Fed’s Kashkari (’23 voter) offers CNN some data dependency soundbites:

  • Need to get more data about economy - bbg
  • If inflation stays high, may need to keep rates higher - bbg
  • Possible mild recession would bring inflation down - bbg
  • It follows more comprehensive commentary yesterday and also Sunday for which the main takeaway was that recently one of the most hawkish FOMC members sees the June decision as a close call and that he’s open to skipping a hike then but clearly wouldn’t describe it as a pause whilst continuing to assess conditions.
  • After two already sizeable increases in Fed rate expectations over the past two days, the continued data dependency (taking a leaf out of Daly’s book yesterday re the need for “extreme” data dependency) limits any further reaction. FOMC-dated OIS currently prices a 6.5bp hike for June with a terminal at 5.20% in July (+11.5bp).
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