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Kashkari Sees Pause At 5.4% And Potentially Much Higher

FED
  • Kashkari (’23 voter) writes in an essay that he favors raising rates “at least at the next few meetings until we are confident inflation has peaked”.
  • “I have us pausing at 5.4 percent, but wherever that end point is, we won’t immediately know if it is high enough to bring inflation back down to 2 percent in a reasonable period of time.”
  • “Once we see the full effects of the tightened policy, we can then assess whether we need to go higher or simply remain at that peak level for longer. To be clear, in this phase any sign of slow progress that keeps inflation elevated for longer will warrant, in my view, taking the policy rate potentially much higher.”
  • Some volatility in Fed-dated OIS terminal pricing post the remarks, anywhere between little changed at 4.94-4.95% to rising circa 1bp.
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