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Kashkari Still Favors Getting Rates to 5.4%

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  • Speaking to CNBC in his first commentary since last week’s FOMC and payrolls, Kashkari (’23 voter) says he still favors getting rates to 5.4%.
  • He was surprised by the strength of the jobs report with underlying strength in services but nobody should overreact to one report (reported by Reuters).
  • 12 month PCE inflation is the ultimate goal and “virtually no progress” seen in core services ex housing”.
  • With Fed models failing during Covid re-opening, he reiterates that we must let realized inflation guide policy rather models, consistent with various FOMC members looking for an accumulation of evidence that inflation is moderating.
  • It supports the earlier drift higher for the FOMC-dated OIS implied terminal to 5.12% with the July meeting but remains off yesterday’s high of 5.16%.
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  • Speaking to CNBC in his first commentary since last week’s FOMC and payrolls, Kashkari (’23 voter) says he still favors getting rates to 5.4%.
  • He was surprised by the strength of the jobs report with underlying strength in services but nobody should overreact to one report (reported by Reuters).
  • 12 month PCE inflation is the ultimate goal and “virtually no progress” seen in core services ex housing”.
  • With Fed models failing during Covid re-opening, he reiterates that we must let realized inflation guide policy rather models, consistent with various FOMC members looking for an accumulation of evidence that inflation is moderating.
  • It supports the earlier drift higher for the FOMC-dated OIS implied terminal to 5.12% with the July meeting but remains off yesterday’s high of 5.16%.