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Kazaks Less Optimistic Than Market On First Cut Timing

ECB

Kazaks, speaking on Latvian TV, broadly reiterates yesterday’s comments that it’s too soon to declare victory over inflation, although is more explicit on a rate path.

  • He sees rates remaining at 4% for some time before a likely cut, but isn’t as optimistic as markets on the timing of the first cut.
  • ECB-dated OIS currently shows a roughly 50/50 call for a first cut in March which is then more than fully priced for April (cumulative 36bp of cuts) building to 147bp by end-2024.

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