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Key comments from Jansson

RIKSBANK
  • "As I see it, inflation expectations perhaps continue to be the most important component in the inflation picture just now. That the currently measured inflation rate varies quite a lot and periodically undershoots the inflation target by quite a margin does not actually matter so much, as long as it rises going forward and economic agents also expect it to do so. As it will take some time before the economy has recovered after the pandemic, it is above all a case of checking that longer-term inflation expectations do not deviate too much from the target."
  • "That five-year inflation expectations among money market participants are very consistently close to 2 per cent is naturally very good news."
  • "The results in the larger quarterly survey for March also give cause for optimism. Compared with the previous survey in December, the five-year expectations for all groups are rising and are now at 1.8 per cent or higher. The expectations of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector are increasing particularly sharply, from 1.7 to 2 per cent."
  • Regarding inflation breakevens: "The trends on these markets, that have continued since our last meeting in February, are so far not at all dramatic and are probably, in the countries concerned, rather seen as something positive, associated with expectations of a sound economic recovery and closer-to-target inflation. But in this area, it is important to continue to carefully follow developments, and to analyse the driving forces behind them, as problems may arise if the trends are reinforced or continue for a longer period of time."
  • "In a favourable scenario, in which economic agents realise that we are dealing with nothing other than temporary inflation variations, neither financial conditions nor inflation expectations in the slightly longer term should be affected very much."
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