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Key data and MPC speakers this week (3/3)

UK
  • The most significant MPC speech is likely to be by Megan Greene on Thursday, entitled “The current state of Britain’s labour market.” We think that Greene and Haskel remain the two most hawkish members of the MPC (we suspect Mann is slightly less on the hawkish side based on her previous comments). Any signal that Greene sees less risks of persistence than previously would therefore be significant here. Her vote is unlikely to be needed to reach quorum to cut (irrespective of a June or August first cut) but if she did indicate that she was leaning in a more dovish direction, this would likely see the market increase the probability of near-term cuts. Conversely, if she remains hawkish we are not sure there will be too much of a market reaction.
  • Other MPC speakers this week are Huw Pill at the Institute of Chartered Accountants Economic Summit on Tuesday (no text, so unlikely to be a speech where he changes his tone).
  • Catherine Mann on Friday will gives the keynote speech at Economics Statistics Centre of Excellence Conference. Her speech will be entitled Economic Measurement 2024 ‘cost of capital: measurement and implications for business investment’. Mann may not say anything of note on monetary policy in her prepared remarks, but the Q&A may give her a chance to communicate her updated views. As we noted in our BOE preview, we think Mann could be the least hawkish of the remaining external members not already voting for cuts.
  • Looking further ahead Broadbent’s speech at the “New evidence on the Monetary Transmission Mechanism” workshop could be key next Monday.
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