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Key Hurdle In Focus Ahead Of RBA

AUD

The greenback fell on Monday, opening up a move higher for AUD/USD, the pair moved as high as 0.7661 before running into offers, last trades at 0.7654, up 3 pips on the session. USD declined as stocks rose amid a supportive risk environment, while ISM data showed service providers in the US recorded the fastest pace of growth on record in March. Also supporting AUD was a relaxation in coronavirus containment measures. South Australia reopened its doors to the city of Brisbane, Queensland starting Sunday, April 4. Queensland experienced a three-day lockdown last week due to new COVID-19 cases. By Saturday, only one new locally transmitted COVID-19 case related to the Brisbane cluster.

  • From a technical perspective AUD/USD has started the week well, despite trading poorly at the tail-end of last week. Nonetheless, the outlook remains fragile. The pair has breached support at 0.7563, Mar 25 low and also cleared the Feb 2 low of 0.7564. This reinforces the current bearish theme following the confirmation of a head and shoulders reversal pattern on Mar 23. The move lower opens 0.7517 next, Dec 22 low. On the upside, initial resistance is seen at 0.7664, Mar 30 high, above this the 50-day moving average at 0.7717 is in focus.
  • First up on the data docket tonight is ANZ Job Advertisements at 0230BST/1130AEDT, but the main event is the RBA rate announcement at 0530BST/1430AEDT. There is seemingly little scope for anything in the way of notable developments at the upcoming RBA meeting, given the recent deluge of rhetoric from the RBA Governor. See the full MNI preview here:

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