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Key Indicators Show Tight But Easing Labour Market

RBA

While new jobs fell sharply in December due to changes in hiring timing, overall the data showed that the labour market remains tight but is easing gradually as signalled by the shift towards part-time employment, decline in the vacancy rate, and the moderate upwards trend in the underemployment and youth unemployment rates.

  • The 65.1k drop in employment in December was not met with a rise in the unemployment rate, as the number of unemployed fell 1k as 65.9k people left the labour force. The unemployment rate remained at 3.9%, 0.4pp higher than a year ago and June, pointing to some easing of the labour market.
  • The RBA also monitors the youth unemployment rate closely as it is a leading indicator and while it fell 0.2pp in December to 9.5% but is up 1.6pp since June and 1.9pp on a year ago.
  • The underemployment rate was stable in December at 6.5% and while it remains historically low it is 0.4pp higher on the year but only up 0.1pp since June, thus signalling the labour market remains tight.
Australia unemployment vs underemployment rates %

Source: MNI - Market News/ABS

  • The vacancies-to-unemployment ratio remains elevated and well-above 2018/2019 levels but it eased 4.2pp in Q4 and is now 23.7pp lower than Q4 2022.
Australia job vacancies to unemployment %

Source: MNI - Market News/ABS/Refinitiv

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