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Key Inflation Data May Be Crucial For August Copom Decision

BRAZIL
  • Headline IPCA inflation is expected to reach 8.51% for the mid-month reading in July. This will be the final reading for the Brazil Central Bank before the August Copom meeting. In the June statement emphasis was placed on the consideration of a more aggressive tightening of up to 100bps in August and therefore markets may place some added weight on today's print.
  • Markets may have a small bias towards a lower print following the increase in a key measure of inflation that includes wholesale prices slowing to 0.6% in June from a month earlier, less than the 1% anticipated by analysts and down from a jump of 4.1% in May.
  • The short end of the interest-rate swap curve now shows traders are pricing in an 88 basis-point move in the bank's key rate, down from 109 basis points last month. According to Bloomberg, digital options are now pricing in 59% odds that Brazil's bank will stick with another 75bp move.
    • 1300BST/0800ET – Brazil July IPCA-15 Inflation (Est. 0.65% m/m vs. 0.83% Prior)
    • 1300BST/0800ET – Brazil July IPCA-15 Inflation (Est. 8.51% y/y vs. 8.13% Prior)
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