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Key Q1 CPI Data Released Wednesday

AUSTRALIA

Q1 CPI prints on Wednesday and will be the focus of the week as it will feed into the RBA’s updated outlook published on May 7 and thus also its decision making. Bloomberg consensus expects it to ease to 3.5% y/y from 4.1% but for the quarterly rise to pick up from Q4. Trimmed mean is forecast to drop to 3.8% from 4.2%. Given the upward surprise to NZ’s domestic inflation in Q1, there is a risk the services component remains “sticky”, which the RBA is monitoring closely (see MNI Strong NZ Domestic Inflation May Also Show In Australia's Q1 Data).

  • Monthly CPI for March is also released on Wednesday and is forecast to be at 3.4% y/y for the fourth consecutive month.
  • On Tuesday, preliminary Judo Bank PMIs for April print. In March, services and the composite moved further into expansionary territory. Manufacturing activity continued to contract. The price/cost readings are an interesting component of the data.
  • Q1 trade prices and PPI are released on Friday. Export prices are unlikely to be as strong as they were in Q4, given commodity price movements.
  • Australian markets are closed on Thursday April 25 for the Anzac Day holiday.
  • There are no RBA events currently scheduled.
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