Key Retail And Inflation Data Print This Week

Following the March RBA meeting, Governor Lowe said that the Board would be looking at the “collective” signal from inflation, employment, retail and business confidence data. The NAB business survey and the labour market data for February both point to another 25bp hike on April 4. This week February retail sales and inflation print, which will round out the 4 key pieces of data and hopefully give a clearer signal for the next RBA decision.

• On Tuesday, retail sales are published. They rose 1.9% m/m last month but the level was in line with September 2022. Sales are expected to rise a moderate 0.2% in February. The series is nominal and so currently a large part of any growth is due to inflation. There is a significant spread in forecasts, as the series can be volatile, with the upper end at +1.3% and the lower end -1.2% but most are between -0.5% and +0.8%.
• Monthly February CPI data print on Wednesday. January surprised to the downside and analysts expect a further easing to 7.2% from 7.4%. Estimates range from 6.7% to 7.7% with most between 6.9% and 7.4%.
• Quarterly job vacancies for February are released on Thursday.
• February RBA private sector credit is published on Friday and should post another 0.4% m/m increase.
• RBA’s Connolly, Head of Payments Policy Department, speaks on “The shift to electronic payments – some policy issues” at the AFR Banking Summit on Tuesday at 1615 AEDT.