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Kiwi Catches Light Bid After RBNZ Underscores Tightening Bias
The kiwi dollar took the lead in G10 FX space after the RBNZ announced its monetary policy review, but has already given away the bulk of those gains.
- New Zealand's central bank raised the OCR by the expected 50bp while signalling continued hawkish bias. The statement underscored the Reserve Bank's focus on bringing inflation under control, while the peak of the OCR track was reset higher.
- NZD/USD popped higher in the initial reaction, running as high as to $0.6383 and having a look above yesterday's high. The pair has now trimmed gains and last deals at $0.6352, up 6 pips on the day, with familiar technical levels in play.
- NZGB yield curve has bear flattened as the short-end leads cheapening impetus. When this is being typed, yields sit 4.8-8.5bp higher. The 2-year/10-year segment has moved deeper into inversion territory as the prospect of continued aggressive RBNZ tightening increases the risk of a hard landing for the economy.
- The OIS strip almost fully prices (implied ~96% chance) another 50bp rate hike come the end of the next MPC meeting in October.
- Reminder that RBNZ Gov Orr is beginning his press conference. He will also testify to a parliamentary committee tomorrow morning.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.