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Kiwi Flies On Jobs Report, Upbeat Caixin Services PMI Supports Risk

FOREX

New Zealand's labour market data beat expectations across the board and another round of hawkish RBNZ repricing ensued, while some major sell-side desks released hawkish updates of their RBNZ calls. The OIS strip fully prices a 25bp OCR hike in August, while all "Big 4" banks now expect the Reserve Bank to raise the OCR by 25bp at each of their three remaining monetary policy meetings this year. The kiwi comfortably outperformed all of its G10 peers, while NZD/USD punched through its 50-DMA for the first time in two months.

  • AUD/NZD sank through the NZ$1.0500 figure, which had been intact since early December, as hawkish RBNZ repricing added fresh tightening pressure to the Australia/New Zealand 2-Year swap spread, resulting in yet another multi-year low for that differential.
  • Major NZD crosses saw notable spikes in their 2-week implied volatilities, as the RBNZ's next gathering is slated for August 18.
  • Risk appetite got a boost as China's Caixin Services PMI turned out considerably firmer than expected, in contrast to the factory gauge released earlier this week. USD/CNH faltered to fresh weekly lows, while traditional safe haven currencies took a hit.
  • U.S. monthly ADP and a number of PMI reports from across the globe take focus today, while central bank speaker slate is headlined by Fed's Clarida & Bullard.

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