Kiwi Lags Most G10 Peers Even As NZD/USD Ekes Out Gains

Post-Asia NZD price action was driven by offshore developments. Broad-based greenback weakness helped NZD/USD recoup its initial losses and finish the day slightly above neutral levels.

• Earlier kiwi weakness may have been amplified by data showing that New Zealand's trade balance flipped to a monthly deficit of NZ$701mn in June from May's surplus of NZ$263mn. The deficit was boosted by a surge in petroleum imports, which hit a fresh record high, with Stats NZ noting that "the way New Zealand sources its fuel (...) will lead to a heavier reliance on oil refining nations."
• Cross-asset signals were mixed. Equity dynamics were supportive, with U.S. benchmarks creeping higher & the VIX index retreating, but Bloomberg Commodity Index slipped.
• NZD/USD last trades at $0.6250, roughly where it was come the end of play on Thursday. A break above Jul 20 high of $0.6272 would shift focus to the 50-DMA/Jun 24 & 27 highs at $0.6317/27. Bears need a plunge below Jul 14 low of $0.6061 to regain the upper hand.