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Kiwi Outperforms After Q3 CPI Fans RBNZ Tightening Expectations

FOREX

The kiwi went bid in early trade after a considerable beat in New Zealand's quarterly CPI data boosted RBNZ tightening bets. The rate of consumer-price growth was +4.9% Y/Y in Q3, which means it topped expectations of all economists surveyed by BBG and the RBNZ's projection from their latest MPS. The OIS strip currently prices ~36bp worth of OCR hikes at the Reserve Bank's next monetary policy meeting, with the NZD outperforming its G10 peers as we type.

  • NZD/USD briefly showed above a key layer of resistance from the 200-DMA/descending trendline drawn off Feb 2021 high, but struggled to make much headway beyond there and trimmed gains.
  • Sterling trades on a slightly firmer footing, digesting the weekend round of comments from BoE Gov Bailey. The official said that the central bank will "have to act" to tame inflation.
  • JPY is off to a weak start, extending losses after its worst week since Mar 2020. The yen has struggled even as U.S. e-minis slipped in early dealing.
  • China's quarterly GDP report & monthly economic activity indicators headline the regional data docket, with comments from RBA's Heath also due.
  • Later today, focus will turn to comments from Fed's Quarles & Kashkari, ECB's de Cos & BoE's Cunliffe as well as U.S. industrial output & Canadian housing starts.
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