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KO Expected To Take Control Of More Regions But Remains Runner-Up In National Vote Count
Prime Minister Donald Tusk's Civic Coalition (KO) won the elections in more voivodeships (regions) than in 2018 but failed to overtake Law and Justice (PiS) as the front-runner in the nationwide vote count. Commenting on preliminary results, the Prime Minister said that while he was satisfied with "systematically closing the gap" with PiS, "record victories in cities and an advantage in regional assemblies," he was worried by "demobilisation, especially among younger voters, and a defeat in the East and in rural areas."
- Based on an exit poll by Ipsos PiS garnered 33.7% of votes in regional assembly elections in the whole country, with KO slightly behind on 31.9%. The results of the Civic Coalition's partners from national government disappointed. The Third Way secured 13.5% and the Left (6.8%) fell behind far-right Confederation (7.5%).
- The Civic Coalition secured the highest number of votes in 10 voivodeship assemblies with PiS claiming 6 (as opposed to 7 and 9 respectively in the 2018 election) but the final number of legislatures controlled by each party will be determined by difficult coalition talks with junior partners.
- A simulation by Onet.pl showed that if the results were replicated in a parliamentary election, the ruling coalition would stay in power, but the Civic Coalition would gain a few seats at the cost of the Left. Law and Justice would lose five seats and Confederation would gain five.
- KO's Rafal Trzaskowski got re-elected as the Mayor of Warsaw with 59.8% of the vote, easily beating PiS's Tobiasz Bochenski (18.5%) and the Left's Magdalena Biejat (15.8%), improving his result from 2018. Wp.pl cited KO sources suggesting that this confirms Trzaskowski as the party's most likely 2025 presidential candidate.
- The second and third biggest cities may see tight races in mayoral run-offs on April 21. KO's Aleksander Miszalski (39.4%) outperformed earlier favourite Lukasz Gibala (28.4%) in Krakow mayoral election. Meanwhile, Jacek Sutryk (38.9%) will face off with Third Way's Izabela Bodnar (31.4%) in Wroclaw.
Fig. 1: Regional Elections 2024 - Ipsos Exit Poll
| Electoral Committee | 2024 Regional Elections | 2023 Parliamentary Election | 2018 Regional Elections |
|---|---|---|---|
| Law and Justice (PiS) | 33.7% | 35.4% | 34.1% |
| Civic Coalition (KO) | 31.9% | 30.7% | 27.0% |
| Third Way (TD) | 13.5% | 14.4% | 12.1% (as PSL) |
| Confederation | 7.5% | 7.2% | - |
| Left | 6.8% | 8.6% | 6.6% (as SLD) |
| Non-Partisan Local Government Activists (BS) | 2.7% | 1.9% | 5.3% |
| Other | 3.9% | - | - |
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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.