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Komercni Banka Delay Expected Timing Of First CNB Rate Cut

CNB

Ahead of next week's CNB monetary policy meeting, Komercni banka push back their rate-cut call and now think that the Bank Board won't ease monetary policy until next year.

  • "We expect the first rate cut in February next year vs September this year as in our previous forecast," Komercni banka wrote in a research note. "But we think that the cuts will have to be faster next year, with the repo rate at 4% by end-2024."
  • "The postponement of the start of the CNB’s monetary easing cycle should also shift the decline in market interest rates. The inverse shape of the curve is likely to be maintained throughout next year."
  • "The CNB’s policy, combined with a rapidly weakening US dollar, should keep depreciation pressures at bay. We expect the EURCZK 24.10 level to be reached in the next 12 months."
  • Click here to see the full note, which was published on the bank's website yesterday.
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