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Koruna Loses Ground, CNB Rate Decision Up This Week

CZK
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EUR/CZK trades +0.194 at 25.168 as the koruna underperforms its CE3 peers (PLN/CZK +0.6%; CZK/HUF -0.8%). From a technical perspective, continued gains would allow bulls to challenge the 50-DMA (25.293), followed by key resistance from Feb 15 cycle high of 25.519. On the flip side, bears look for a sustained move past the round figure of 25.000 and towards Jan 2 high of 24.867.

  • Domestic economic calendar is virtually empty today, with advance Q1 GDP coming up tomorrow (08:00BST/09:00CEST). Otherwise, the focus this week falls on the CNB's monetary policy decision on Thursday. Consensus looks for a 50bp cut (analysts polled by Bloomberg are unanimous), with market participants also interested in the updated macroeconomic forecasts and comments on a fresh r* estimate.
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EUR/CZK trades +0.194 at 25.168 as the koruna underperforms its CE3 peers (PLN/CZK +0.6%; CZK/HUF -0.8%). From a technical perspective, continued gains would allow bulls to challenge the 50-DMA (25.293), followed by key resistance from Feb 15 cycle high of 25.519. On the flip side, bears look for a sustained move past the round figure of 25.000 and towards Jan 2 high of 24.867.

  • Domestic economic calendar is virtually empty today, with advance Q1 GDP coming up tomorrow (08:00BST/09:00CEST). Otherwise, the focus this week falls on the CNB's monetary policy decision on Thursday. Consensus looks for a 50bp cut (analysts polled by Bloomberg are unanimous), with market participants also interested in the updated macroeconomic forecasts and comments on a fresh r* estimate.