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Kremlin Concedes Oil Production to Decline This Year

RUSSIA
  • Speaking this morning with reporters, Deputy PM Novak has noted that Russian oil production is to drop to 480-500 million tons compared to 524 million tons in 2021.
  • Late yesterday, a Russian government official stated that Moscow would allow food-carrying vessels to depart from Ukrainian ports should sanctions against Russia be lifted. Such a move would unlock as much as 20 million metric tonnes of grain as well as key inputs for other products seen hampered by global supply chain issues – most notably sunflower oil. The comments were made by Russia’s deputy foreign minister.
  • We wrote yesterday: Ruble ‘Recovery’ Very Likely to Be An Illusion - It is important to know that the Ruble is not a convertible currency anymore, which can attract arbitraging capital flows, therefore confirming that the current levels are ‘artificial’. In this chart, we compute a simple alternative measure of ‘RUB’ using a set of financial and economic variables. Interestingly, MNI ‘fair’ value of USDRUB prices in a exchange rate above 90; the chart shows the strong divergence between the ‘spot’ rate and the ‘fair’ value rate since the beginning of April. Full piece here: https://marketnews.com/ruble-recovery-very-likely-to-be-an-illusion
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