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KOREAN WON: KRW onshore markets were closed overnight (like much of mainland
Europe, South America and Asia today) but offshore markets have pulled back
slightly. The 1m KRW NDF has retreated back to the lower levels of the Tuesday
session, possibly indicating some relief in upside pressure. While markets were
quiet, South Korea did release trade balance numbers for April, which fared far
better than expected on both the exports and imports measure, possibly soothing
concern toward the currency when it reopens Thursday. Nonetheless, export growth
remained under pressure, falling for a fifth consecutive release. Nonetheless,
other NDF contracts (most notably the 6m) remain elevated at 1,158, indicating
the KRW may only benefit from short-term relief upon re-opening.
-The recent move in USD/KRW spot has boosted the RSI further into overbought
territory, hitting its highest levels since 2014.
-Attention turns to South Korean CPI due Thursday, expected to recover from the
negative M/M reading printed March, seen rising by 0.3% in April. Manufacturing
PMI also crosses after signalling contraction last month.