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L'Oreal's forward earnings in focus; beauty names sell-off

CREDIT UPDATE

L'Oreal equities was on a one-way slide today (-4.7%) taking beauty comp Beiersdorf (-2.5%) along with it after UBS equity analysts downgraded the stock to neutral - focus (as expected) on forward earnings estimates for this year; "L’Oreal’s valuation is seemingly pricing another year of robust industry growth, visibility remains limited...signal a return to more muted growth for the beauty market...forecast a return to mid-single-digit like-for-like sales for L’Oreal in both North America and Europe; they point out this is still ahead of the last decade’s average...pick up in China beauty and Asia travel retail in early 2024 seems to be “highly hypothetical at this juncture,” (bbg, UBS).

Consensus (25 analysts) are looking for 7.5% revenue growth in FY24 - regional EU/NA rev forecasts already seem in line with UBS revisions to "mid-single-digits" for FY24. L'Oreal will report FY23 results in early Feb alongside Coty & Estee Lauder. It's high-grade Aa1/AA bonds are unch -to- 2bps wider - further down Coty's € 1st Lien & Secured Ba3/BB+ lines are mixed - equities closed for MLK day. As we mentioned with Airline sell-off on Friday re. US equities (below) - local equities are also coming off 2month/+11% bull run that has been driven by P/E expansion - we will have more on this later in the week.

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