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Labor Input An Increasing Problem For Small Business

US DATA

This morning's NFIB survey report showed small business optimism was largely in line with expectations in Apr (with a reading of 99.8, vs 100.8 expected, and 98.2 prior).

  • A common theme that continues in recent NFIB reports has been the rise of hiring as a problem for many small businesses (conversely during the height of the pandemic, poor sales were the biggest concern).
  • Two of the categories in the April NFIB - respondents planning to increase employee compensation in the next 12 months, and the percentage calling the "quality" of labor their biggest problem - remained elevated, with the former joint-highest since January 2020.
  • These categories suggest increasing tightness in the labor market vs late 2020, and historically have tended to point the direction for future broad wage gains (as measured by the employment cost index) - see charts below.


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