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Labor & Real Cash Earnings Much Weaker Than Expected

JGBS

In post-Tokyo trade, JGB futures are richer, closing +9 compared to settlement levels, after US tsys had a subdued session ahead of CPI/PPI data on Thursday/Friday. Little reaction in US tsys to a lower-than-expected Trade Balance (-$63.2B vs -$64.9B est). Rates appeared to follow EGBs as they drifted off lows following several EUR IG supply unwinds.

  • US tsys ended the NY session with yields 1-2bps lower across benchmarks.
  • November labor and real cash earnings have just printed much weaker than expected at +0.2% y/y and -3.0% y/y respectively versus expectations of +1.5% (+1.5% prior) and -2.0% (-2.3% prior). Positive real wage gains are seen as a key input into the BoJ achieving its inflation target sustainably. This data should be supportive for the JGB market ahead of today's 10-year supply.
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