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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
UK
Latest opinion poll from YouGov shows the opposition centre-left Labour Party's lead slipping marginally, to a 6% advantage of Prime Minister Boris Johnson's centre-right Conservatives.
- Latest Westminster voting intention: Lab: 38% (-1), Con: 32% (n/c), Lib Dem: 11% (+3), Green: 7% (-1), SNP: 5% (n/c), Reform UK: 3% (-1). YouGov, 26-27 Jan.. Chgs w/20-21 Jan
- Comes amidst continues confusion over the date of the publication of the Gray report into alleged COVID rule breaking at 10 Downing St. A stabilisation in the polls could offer some relief to embattled PM Boris Johnson, with the 'Partygate' scandal continuing to dominate front pages, and brewing backbench discontent over the National Insurance contribution increase slated to come into force in April.
- A flurry of betting on the PM's eventual exit period from No.10 has seen the implied probabilities swing notably in recent days. At the time of writing, the single most likely period for Johnson's exit - according to bettors - is in 2023 or later, with the prospect of his exit coming in Q122 down to an implied probability of 20%.
Chart 1. Implied Probability of PM Johnson Exit Date (by Quarter), %
Source: Smarkets
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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