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Labour market data due at 7:00GMT

UK DATA
  • This morning's labour market data is due for release at 7:00GMT. The importance of labour market data was underlined yesterday as Bailey and three other MPC members testified ahead of the Treasury Select Committee. there will be two things worth watching in this release.
  • First, we will receive the experimental HMRC payroll data for October – this should give us the best view yet of the state of the labour market post-furlough. So far survey data has pointed to only marginal increases in redundancies after the programme ended, the HMRC payroll data should be able to substantiate this.
  • Second, underlying wage growth: this has been picking up in recent months and given the importance of underlying wage growth to the medium-term inflationary picture this data will be crucial. The ONS estimates underlying wage growth in the three months to August to have been between 4.1%-5.6%. If this number creeps up further, it will increasingly become a concern for the MPC.
  • The headline unemployment numbers will only cover the 3-month period to the end of September. This will therefore not be closely watched by the market today as it gives no post-furlough information, but will be more relevant next month. Furthermore, in next month's release the post-furlough aggregate hours worked will be key.
  • In terms of market reaction, a 15bp December hike is still priced with a high probability by markets and strong data is unlikely to move markets too much (as it is largely expected). However, disappointing data could see larger market moves.
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