Labour market data due at 7:00GMT

Labour market data this morning will be closely watched, but is unlikely to have any impact on this week's BOE policy decision which is expected to see a 25bp hike (around 30bp is priced in).

• Wage growth will be in focus, particularly after Tenreyro's recent comments that the BOE's Agents Survey has picked up evidence of wage increases. This will of course be a very important factor for the MPC when judging how much wider inflationary pressures will be passed through with second round impacts. Consensus looks for average weekly earnings to have risen +4.6%, up from +4.3% previously.
• A very strong wage print may increase market expectations that some members continuing to vote for a 50bp hike, and also reduce the expectation that some members may vote for unchanged policy this week.
• Payrolled employees will also be watched, but is unlikely to have much market impact at this stage, while the headline unemployment and employment numbers help add to the narrative but again will not really move markets.
• With the exception of a large surprise in wage growth, any market reaction is likely to be away from the front contracts and will focus instead on how much is priced in for the rest of the year. With 164bp already priced at the time of writing, it's hard to push that too much higher with strong data as there are only 7 meetings and the equivalent of 6.5 25bp hikes are priced for 2022. However, a weak print could see markets reverse some of that pricing.