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Labour Market Forecast To Stay Tight But Keep Easing

NEW ZEALAND

The Q3 NZ jobs data released on Wednesday is expected to show some further easing of the still tight labour market. Employment growth should continue but at a slower pace and the unemployment rate rise some more from its 3.2% trough.

  • The Q3 unemployment rate is expected to rise to 3.9% from 3.6% helped by the increase in labour supply from record immigration. This would be the highest rate since Q2 2021. The range of estimates is between 3.7% and 4.2%. ASB, ANZ and Westpac are all in line with the Bloomberg consensus but BNZ expects it to rise only 0.1pp to 3.7% and Kiwibank to 3.8%.
  • Employment growth is forecast to have slowed to 0.4% q/q from 1% in Q2 due to softer labour demand. Most projections are from +0.2% to +0.5% but the full range is -1.5% to +0.7%. ASB, ANZ and Westpac are all in line with consensus but BNZ expects 0.5% and Kiwibank 0.6%.
  • Wages are expected to grow 1% q/q in Q3 in line with where they have been for the last year and half. There is little variability in forecasts.
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