RBA
The RBA focusses on a number of particular labour market indicators and while some still show gradual easing in the labour market continuing, a number have stalled. In aggregate, they point to some stabilisation in Q1 from the previous gradual easing, and so the RBA’s stance is unlikely to change for now.
- The Q1 NAB business survey was also released today and showed that the “availability of suitable labour as a severe output constraint” improved 2.4pp to be now 22pp from its most severe but labour shortages remain with the series still 9pp above the historical average.
Australia NAB labour output constraint %
Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv
- Unemployment rates have been volatile. March was 0.1pp below December but it is 0.4pp above the October 2022 trough. Youth unemployment rose 0.5pp to 9.6% in March and stands 2.4pp above the July 2022 trough. The RBA sees it as a leading indicator of the labour market.
Australia unemployment rate 15-24yrs %
Source: MNI - Market News/ABS
- With hours worked recovering in Q1, the underemployment rate has stabilised with Q1 less than 0.1pp higher than Q4 and still very low at 6.6% (3-month average).
- While vacancies-to-unemployment remain elevated, the ratio is well off its high falling 3.5pp in Q1 to 64.3%. It reached a peak of 91.8% in Q3 2022.
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