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Free AccessLabour Market Report Sparks A Sharp Reversal
Aussie rates futures extended overnight session weakness ahead of domestic employment data, before reversing sharply on an unexpected uptick in unemployment and a soft headline employment figure.
- While the January employment data appeared to deliver tentative signs of labour market cooling, post-data briefings by the Big-4 banks all signalled caution re: taking a firm view. Factors deemed to be in play included “seasonal patterns”, “a greater than usual ‘holiday effect’” and the fact that “the ABS reported “more people than usual with a job indicating they were starting…work later in the month.”
- YM and XM were -10.0 to -13.0 early, only to surge 15-16bp before closing +2.0 and -2.0, respectively.
- AU/U.S. 10-year yield differential is 4bp lower at -2bp, narrowing post-data.
- Swap rates also reversed the early push higher, with the 3s10s curve 4bp steeper.
- Bills closed 1-6bp, bull steepening, also more than reversing early losses.
- Immediate RBA-dated OIS was a tad lower with an 88% chance of a 25bp hike priced for next month. Terminal rate expectations (Sep/Oct-22) continued to fluctuate between 4.10%-4.22%, closing at 4.12%. It traded near the top of the range pre-data.
- ANZ now forecasts the RBA cash rate target peaking at 4.10% in the current cycle.
- Supply matters headline locally tomorrow.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.