Labour Set To Take Dublin Bay South In Blow To Varadkar's Fine Gael

The centre-left Labour Party is set to take the Dail Eireann (parliamentary) constituency of Dublin Bay South from the centre-right Fine Gael in a major blow to the party of Tanaiste (Deputy PM) Leo Varadkar.

• The by-election in Dublin Bay South took place on 8 July due to the resignation of incumbent Teachta Dala/member of parliament (TD) and housing minister Eohgan Murphy.
• While official results have not yet been released, the level of support for Labour candidate Ivana Bacik in the first count (at around 30%) is likely to prove an insurmountable lead for FG candidate James Geoghegan to overturn in subsequent rounds.
• The constituency has been painted as a 'heartland' for Fine Gael, the junior partner in the governing coalition alongside its historic political adversary the centrist Fianna Fail. The areas population is relatively young, affluent, and socially liberal. Historically this may have benefitted FG, but with a large proportion of the areas residents private renters, this view of Dublin Bay South as an FG stronghold may be outdated. Indeed, in the 2020 general election the seat's four TDs came from the environmentalist Greens, FF, FG, and the left-wing nationalist Sinn Fein.
• For Labour - in the political wilderness since their seat total was decimated in the 2016 general election - the Dublin Bay South result is a major win. The party is attempting to rebuild its fortunes and present itself as the main opposition to the FF-FG gov't rather than Sinn Fein.
• Fine Gael on the other hand are likely to go through a period of introspection. While the party is vying for top spot in national polls against Sinn Fein, there remains an undercurrent of opposition to Varadkar's continued leadership. It should be noted though, as in many other countries, that governing parties very rarely do well in mid-term by-elections and as such an opposition win is not a major surprise.