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Lagarde Notes Rate Hikes Being Transmitted "Strongly"

ECB

Lagarde continues, surveying the main risks to the outlook:

  • Downside risks from Russian war. Reversal of past supply shocks could lead to resilience, as could increased consumer spending.
  • Still significant upside risks to inflation. Including pipeline pressures, energy from Russian war, higher food costs or increased wages/profit margins could increase inflation over the medium-term.
  • Downside risks include renewed financial market tensions, weaker demand e.g. Due to lower bank lending or fast transmission mechanism.
On financial conditions: Policy rate increases being transmitted "strongly".
  • Latest bank lending survey saw more tightening of credit standards than expected in previous round, which could lead to lending falling further.
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