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Lagarde: Rates Unlikely To Rise In 2022

ECB
Q&A with Lagarde is underway. First Q: Given the high uncertainty surrounding the forecasts, how can you be confidence to keeping interest rates for such a long period? To what extent has the emergence of Omicron been reflected in the staff projections and how do you think it will affect inflation?
  • A: There is a conflict between a strong recovery, reduced unemployment and inflation moving to target, but with the uncertainty around energy prices and the pandemic. We made decisions in line with what was originally intended, which was to gradually reduce asset purchases and end PEPP in March as was initially considered. We are not making any specific commitment.
  • We land at EUR20b for APP in October, but it is open. Given the uncertainty, we also wanted to have as much flexibility and optionality as possible. As such, we have extended the PEPP reinvestment period. We have also decided to keep it open ended.
  • Interest rates are unlikely to rise in 2022 – that still stands.
  • We don’t know much from the scientific world about how bad the Omicron variant is compared to Delta. However, the economy is now more resilient.
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