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Lagarde: Slowdown In Play, But Many Downside Risks Haven't Materialised

ECB
Q: Would you say that we are now in the downside economic scenario which assumes a recession?
  • A: We will know more in December when all the data are collected and there are new projections. If you look at the downside scenario, many of the assumptions we made have not materialised:
    • complete shortage of Russian gas (we are getting some gas)
    • no substitution–( there is evidence of substitution)
    • continued rise in commodity prices ( we have seen some commodity prices fall significantly).
  • So we are not facing these assumptions. But, we are not in the baseline scenario. There is a slowdown in play. We see fiscal support and improving supply bottlenecks, but all other indicators are pointing downwards.
Q: There are initiatives in several countries curb the impact of rising energy prices. What is your view on that? Does it help the ECB to fight inflation?
  • A: It depends on how the measures are designed and how any transfers are financed. We welcome structural reforms that will target the energy markets in particular.
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