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Lagarde: Trust Forecast Work, But Don't Always Get It Right

ECB

Q: How confident are you about the ECBs forecasting models? How would a new crisis tool complement existing instruments?

  • A: We have trust in the work that we do. Yes. Do we get all of our forecasts correct? No. Do we trust that we monitor all of the data, apply all of the economic wisdom that we can, that we use as many possible models as possible? Yes we do.
  • We have to be cognizant that when there are major unpredicted events that are not part of past patterns, it is difficult to integrate that into the models.
  • We constantly try to improve on the toolbox based on what works. This will continue to happen in the future.

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