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Lagging Broader Sell-Offs, Durable Goods and 5Y Supply Ahead

US TSYS
  • Treasuries see broad downward pressure but lag a larger sell-off in European and in particular Australian FI earlier today after beats for Australian CPI and the German Ifo index.
  • Cash yields sit 2.6-3.3bps higher although the introduction of the new 2 after yesterday’s auction sees 2s10s at -30.5bps for a 2.5bp increase from yesterday’s close.
  • TYM4 is close to session lows of 107-25 (- 09+), on typical cumulative volumes approaching 300k, but remains above yesterday’s pre-PMI low of 107-20+. The bearish trend condition remains in place with support seen at 107-13+ (Apr 16 low) after which lies 107-07+ in the first of some Fibo projection levels.
  • Earnings season continues whilst today’s docket focus is on durable goods orders in the final update before tomorrow’s Q1 GDP advance, before 5Y supply.
  • Data: MBA mortgage data Apr 19 (0700ET), Durable goods Apr prelim (0830ET)
  • Note/bond issuance: US Tsy $30B 2Y FRN (1130ET), US Tsy $70B 5Y Note auction, 91282CKP5 (1300ET)
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy $60B 17W Bill auctions (1130ET)
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