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Lags Dollar Sell-Off, RBNZ In Focus Today

NZD

NZD/USD couldn't get above 0.5750 amid broad USD weakness overnight. The Kiwi is the second worst performer within the G10 space over the past 24 hours. On downside for NZD/USD, we found support ahead of 0.5680 yesterday, while beyond that is the 0.5600 region. All eyes today rest with the RBNZ decision, with a 50bps hike expected.

  • The market may also be a little more nervous after yesterday's dovish surprise from the RBA about what the RBNZ will deliver. See our full preview here.
  • NZ yield momentum is weaker against the US. The 2yr swap differential is down to around +12bps, versus recent highs closer to +30bps.
  • This likely curbed NZD topside, even amongst a much better risk backdrop, with US equities +3% higher and the VIX sub 30%.
  • Elsewhere, out earlier today, NZ house prices fell by 1.5% m/m in September according to core logic. The drop for Q3 was 4.1%, the largest since the 2008 GFC.
  • NZ dairy prices were also weaker, with the GDT WMP falling by 4.29% to $3573 overnight.
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