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Lane blog post on inflation shocks

ECB
  • "These relative price shocks reflect the scale and breadth of the energy shock and the pandemic- and war-related shocks. Under such circumstances, standard measures of contemporaneous underlying inflation may not accurately signal the persistent component of inflation, while forward-looking wage growth trackers may play a useful supplementary role in identifying the medium-term inflation dynamics."
  • "Long-term inflation expectations currently appear well anchored at the two per cent target, but a prolonged phase of above-target inflation poses a de-anchoring risk that is addressed by raising interest rates to the levels required to make sure that inflation returns to target in a timely manner."
  • The Lane blog post is a mammoth piece. At first glance there's not a huge amount that is market moving but it's going to be worth a proper read with a cup of coffee over the weekend.
  • The one chart I haven't seen elsewhere is below, an experimental forward-looking tracker of negotiated wage growth:
  • The full blog post is available here.

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