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Large Beat For Core PCE

US DATA
  • Core PCE inflation: 3.73% annualized in Q1 (cons 3.4) after two quarters at 2.04%.
  • With zero monthly revisions, it would require a print in the order of 0.48% M/M for tomorrow’s March release (after 0.26% in Feb and 0.45% in Jan).
  • Revisions seems likely though, which should limit some of this latest M/M strength, but it could nevertheless track 2.9% Y/Y for March. That’s a tenth higher than the little changed 2.8% Y/Y which Powell flagged, and which in turn had been a tenth higher than the 2.7% Y/Y the 3.4% annualized for Q1 had roughly implied.

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