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Large Belly-Led Retracement Ahead Of Loaded Docket

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys see a sizeable belly-led rally that has picked up pace through the European session and continued with the US coming in, following yesterday’s heavy selling pressure drove fresh cycle highs across the curve. Yields remain within yesterday’s wide ranges whilst 2s10s of -42bps broadly consolidates yesterday’s bear steepening at the higher end of the past couple weeks and off last week’s lows of -57bps.
  • 2YY -9.1bps at 4.244%, 5YY -12.3bps at 3.068%, 10YY -10.7bps at 3.817%, 30YY -6.2bps at 3.678%.
  • TYZ2 trades 15+ ticks higher at 111-27, just off session highs on average volumes, but the trend signals point south with support seen at 111-00+ (Sep 26 low), after which lies 110-13+ (3.0% 10-dma envelope).
  • Fedspeak: Chair Powell on digital currency panel (0730ET), Bullard (1000ET), Kashkari (1300ET) and Daly (2035ET).
  • Data: Durable goods orders, Conf. Board consumer confidence, Richmond Fed, new home sales and FHFA house prices.
  • Bond issuance: US Tsy $44B 5Y Note auction ((91282CFM8) – 1300ET – after yesterday’s 2Y tailed.
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  • Cash Tsys see a sizeable belly-led rally that has picked up pace through the European session and continued with the US coming in, following yesterday’s heavy selling pressure drove fresh cycle highs across the curve. Yields remain within yesterday’s wide ranges whilst 2s10s of -42bps broadly consolidates yesterday’s bear steepening at the higher end of the past couple weeks and off last week’s lows of -57bps.
  • 2YY -9.1bps at 4.244%, 5YY -12.3bps at 3.068%, 10YY -10.7bps at 3.817%, 30YY -6.2bps at 3.678%.
  • TYZ2 trades 15+ ticks higher at 111-27, just off session highs on average volumes, but the trend signals point south with support seen at 111-00+ (Sep 26 low), after which lies 110-13+ (3.0% 10-dma envelope).
  • Fedspeak: Chair Powell on digital currency panel (0730ET), Bullard (1000ET), Kashkari (1300ET) and Daly (2035ET).
  • Data: Durable goods orders, Conf. Board consumer confidence, Richmond Fed, new home sales and FHFA house prices.
  • Bond issuance: US Tsy $44B 5Y Note auction ((91282CFM8) – 1300ET – after yesterday’s 2Y tailed.