Large-Scale Face-To-Face Opinion Poll Suggests Opposition Has Chance To Take Power

A large-sample face-to-face opinion poll conducted by ewybory.eu showed that pro-EU opposition blocs Civic Coalition, Third Way and New Left could grab 252 seats in parliament, which would be enough to form government.

• The poll shows the ruling Law and Justice party (PiS) leads with 33.66%, followed by the Civic Coalition (KO) on 30.87%. The centre-left New Left, centre-right Third Way and far-right Confederation were polling at 12.52%, 11.09% and 8.53% respectively, which means that all parties which registered lists across the whole country (save for the Nonpartisan Local Government Activists) would participate in the distribution of seats if this outcome was reflected in the upcoming election.
• A key advantage of the ewybory.eu poll is that it allows for projections of seat distributions at the district level, which can then be aggregated to make country-level projections. Survey results imply that PiS may count on 175 seats, while pro-EU opposition parties would capture a combined 252 seats against 231 needed to control parliament. Furthermore, the combined votes of pro-EU opposition parties (Civic Coalition, Third Way, New Left) and the far-right Confederation would allow them to overrule presidential vetos, allowing for the unwinding of some of the current administration's contested reforms.
• The ewybory.eu survey is based on a different methodology than most opinion polls. It is conducted with a face-to-face (F2F) method, with interviewers approaching respondents directly rather than online or via phone calls. The latest survey was conducted on a sample of around 10,000 respondents across the whole country. The pollster assumed equal turnout in rural and urban districts and the outcome of the election could deviate from projections, should there be a large disproportion in voted participation. It should also be noted that responses were collected over a relatively long period, between Sep 7 and Oct 8.

Fig. 1: Results of F2F ewybory.eu pre-election poll. The support (in %) for various lists is shown at the top. The projected share of seats is reflected in the chart at the bottom.

Source: ewybory.eu