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Large Upside Surprise In CPI

CANADA DATA
  • Canadian CPI was far stronger than expected, with headline up 5.1% Y/Y vs consensus for an unchanged 4.8% Y/Y.
  • All three core measures were stronger than expected, taking the average up a further three tenths to 3.2% Y/Y.
  • Shelter increased to 6.2% Y/Y, the highest since Feb'90.
  • The BoC had said it wanted to "to remain close to 5% over the first half of 2022" before fading to about 3% by end 2022 as pressures dissipate but the pace of the increase with begin to call that into question.
  • Combined with US retail sales beat, 2Y GoCs spike to north of 1.60%, driving 2s10s to new recent flats of 39bps. USDCAD clears session lows.

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