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Largely Tracking Sideways, Firmer USD A Cap Today

OIL

Brent crude sits little changed in the first part of Monday trade, last above $85.15/bbl. Earlier we had a brief dip sub $84.50/bbl, but no follow through. Front month WTI was last around $82.40/bbl, slightly up for the session but well within recent ranges.

  • For front month Brent, we remain clustered around key EMAs. The lowest is the 200-day near $83.90/bbl. Beyond that lies mid June lows just under $82/bbl. Recent highs rest at $87.95/bbl, recorded on July 5.
  • Focus remains on fall out on the Trump assassination attempt from the weekend and increased odds of a Trump Presidency. This has aided USD sentiment (with Tsy futures lower), which may be curbing oil sentiment at the margins.
  • Elsewhere, we had weaker than expected China activity and Q2 GDP figures. IP growth remains more of a positive, against a softer consumer backdrop.
  • Prompt spreads still suggest a near term supportive backdrop, while the technical picture for WTI is holding up. For WTI futures, sights are on $85.27, the Apr 12 high and a bull trigger. Initial firm support to watch is $80.01, the 50-day EMA.
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