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Larger Than Expected Trade Surplus With Decent Details

CANADA DATA
  • Canada saw a larger than expected goods trade surplus in April at C$1.94B (cons C$0.55B) after only a partly offsetting downward revision to C$0.23B (initial C$0.97B) in March.
  • The improvement on the month in seasonally adjusted terms was driven by the energy surplus bouncing back although the non-energy balance has also seen a trend improvement.
  • The latter, at -6.7% GDP on a 3-month rolling basis, sees its smallest deficit since mid-2021, whilst the latest monthly improvement came as exports outpaced imports rather than a case of import compression.
  • Further, the service balance mostly consolidated a sizeable upward revision to March.
  • The upshot is the goods & services trade balance poked back to a rare surplus of C$0.8B or a deficit equivalent to just -0.5% GDP in the three months to April from -0.7% GDP (or initially -1.0% GDP) as of March.

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